“在满是数据和人口信息的世界，如果你不具备远见卓识，不会利用统计数据，不高瞻远瞩，你的竞争对手将让你无地自容。”（阿库特拉.拉美西斯.阿顿诺西斯.西）(Akutra-Ramses Atenosis Cea)
2019年3月19日下午，国际茶叶委员会主席伊恩·吉布斯在“国际茶情趋势和发展论坛”上作主旨发言
国际茶叶委员会（ITC）对产量、销量、进出口量等相关贸易数据进行了核对，为从业人员和茶叶爱好者提供了宝贵的信息。ITC的数据信息来源于全球有60多个产茶国和超过195个饮茶国，这些信息对茶叶产量和营销策略的发展大有助益。
全球的茶叶产量持续攀升——2018年，全球茶业年产量接近600万公吨（5856414公吨），在20年内翻了两番，而2018年，全球茶产量增加了15.8万吨。假设所有人每天饮茶量相同，那么大家平均每天都会喝上一小杯，即理论上可满足全球约780克/人的需求。
2018年的国际总产量相较于去年增长了3%，在产量的提升上，中国和肯尼亚是主要驱动力，两国的茶叶产量分别增加了119588公吨（增幅5%）和53141公吨（增幅12%）。马拉维也创造了2010年以来的第一份傲人成绩，茶产量超过50000公吨，增幅11%（增加了5006公吨）。肯尼亚的茶叶产量不仅破历史最高记录，相比2015年还增加了10万公吨。而印度、斯里兰卡、越南、印度尼西亚的产量则在2018年出现略微下滑。
2018年肯尼亚产量同比大幅上涨，但17年的产量之于前年减少了3.3万吨，18年的产量仅比16年高出2万吨（增幅4%）。在2010年肯尼亚创造了399006的量产高峰之后有5个年份（2013、2014、2016、2017、2018）的产量超过了40万吨，十年来的平均年产量达到41万吨。种植计划的开展推动了产量攀升，2008-2017年期间，肯尼亚的茶田种植面积扩张了将近50%。
肯尼亚是世界上最大的茶叶出口国，所以此处重点提及了该国的产茶情况。2018年，国际茶叶出口量增加了3.5%，这是自2013年来达到的最高涨幅；国际总出口量在总产量中的占比较低，仅占31.6%（2017年占比31.4%，2016年占比32.3%，2013年占比37.2%）。中国的茶叶出口增量略高于产量增量；俄罗斯、英国、北美、非洲的进口量全部下滑；一些独联体国家、其他欧洲国家、拉丁美洲和大洋洲的进口量微增，引人注目；亚洲和茶叶主产区的进口增量最大，2018年合计增量36000公吨。
拉丁美洲、非洲和欧洲大陆国家也渴望进军茶叶市场。法国及意大利的茶叶进口量呈缓慢增长状态。两国是传统的咖啡国，茶叶进口量的增长表明，传统饮茶国以外还大有市场。
茶饮也面临着巨大挑战，要与咖啡、可可、软饮、水和广受欢迎的花草茶、加味饮品、甚至是酒精竞争份额。单在墨西哥，非酒精饮料就包括玉米汁（atole）、香蒲瑞多（champurrado）、泉净水（aguas frescas）、神之饮（tejate）等等。墨西哥的茶进口量10年内翻了4倍（2018年增幅近10%），年均销量从1杯/人增加至4杯/人。但要同前文提及的全球年均销量比（365杯/人），墨西哥还相差甚远。
为使产业链里的工作人员、尤其是生产上游的工作人员劳有所得，人们在进行茶叶贸易时都尽力抬高售价。非洲产量不断上涨，不可避免地导致其产品在蒙巴萨和林贝拍卖会上竞为低价。2018年交易价格有所下跌，许多生产商的竞价仅在0.5美元/公斤到1美元/公斤之间，低于2017年的价格。降价原因主要取决于品质和产地，价格的低迷状态波及各地，许多国家都承受了20%-50%的价格降幅。销售商及生产商围绕在马拉维推出的2020年计划展开讨论，拟研究出一款能卖个好价的产品配方。由于2018年非洲的茶叶价格走低，人们对于研发解决方案的愿望也更佳迫切。
2018年印度的产茶量接近2017年水平，总体价格也与去年持平；但其在科伦坡拍卖所的产量实际略微下滑，整体价格低于2017年均价。
茶已经渗透进了中国的文化，其中特色茶的根基稳固，从业者也能获得丰厚的回报。西方国家对原产特色茶的需求不断增加，愿意花高价享受好手艺、高质量的茶，也越发有消费者追寻茶盏背后的故事。
供求向来决定价格。许多人提倡减少供给、提高价格；也有相当部分人认为应该把重点放在解决产量过剩的问题上，我将在另一篇文章里围绕这些问题展开详述。
本文对2018年的全球茶市场概况进行了简述，文中言论仅代表个人观点。国际茶叶委员会在统计年报和网站上定期更新的统计数据和周密分析，给人们带来了世界茶行趋势和发展机会的宝贵信息。无论是生产商还是营销商，这些战略家、甚至行业兴趣者都将其视为伟大饮品行业中一笔重要的财富。
爱德华.塔夫特（美国统计学家、耶鲁大学政治、统计、计算机学荣誉教授）曾说过，“如果你觉得数据索然无味，那一定是统计错了。”国际茶叶委员会《统计年报》中的数据则一定是统计数据里的连城之璧！绝不要错过。
THE INTERNATIONAL TEA MARKET
“In a world with amazing amounts of statistics and demographics available, if you don't utilize foresight, statistics, demographics, projections and predictions the competition will.”(Akutra-Ramses Atenosis Cea)
The International Tea Committee collates the statistics of the tea trade – the production, consumption, exports, imports etc. providing valuable information for everyone working in and interested in the trade. With over sixty countries producing tea, and people in over 195 countries drinking it the statistics collated by the ITC from across the world provide plenty of useful information to help to develop both production and marketing strategies.
World tea production continues to grow - in 2018 it grew by over 158,000 MT. It has doubled in twenty years. The 2018 annual production of almost six million metric tons (5,856,414 MT) means that in theory there are approximately 780 grams available for each person in the world – assuming everyone drinks the same quantity – one weak cup of tea per day!
The 2018 figure represents close to a 3% increase on 2017 production and can mainly be attributed to China and Kenya where crops increased by 119,588 MT (5%) and 53,141 MT (12%) respectively. Malawi also recorded a significant increase in production, up 11% (5,006 MT) producing over 50,000 MT - the first time since 2010. Kenya’s figure is particularly significant as it is not only their highest crop ever but it represents an increase of almost 100,000 MT on 2015’s production. India, Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Indonesia, however, all recorded slightly reduced crop figures in 2018.
Although Kenya saw a significant increase on last year’s production it is important to note that production in 2017 was 33,000 MT down on 2016. Production in 2018 was therefore only 20,000 MT (4%) higher than that of 2016. Since 2010 when crop reached a high of 399,006 the Kenya crop figure has only been above 400,000 on five occasions (2013, 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2018) - the average production over the last ten years being 414,331 MT. This growth has been driven to a major degree by the planting programmes which have resulted in the area under tea in Kenya expanding by nearly 50% between 2008 and 2017.
I have highlighted Kenya because they are the largest exporter of tea. In 2018 world exports of tea rose by about 3.5% the largest increase since 2013 but total world exports remain low at only 31.6% of total production (2017 – 31.4%; 2016 32.3%; 2013 – 37.2%). China’s exports increased by less than 10% of its increase in production. Imports into Russia, UK, North America, and Africa all fell. Small growth was evident in the other CIS countries, the rest of Europe, Latin America, and Oceania, while the largest increase in imports was in Asia and major Producing Counties who together imported an additional 36,000 MT in 2018.
Latin America, Africa and the continent of Europe are exciting if challenging markets for tea. Imports to both France and Italy are rising slowly. The progress being made by tea in these two countries, traditional coffee countries, confirms that there are very real opportunities outside the established tea drinking countries.
Tea faces huge competition for share of throat - from coffee, cocoa, soft drinks, water, all the increasingly popular herbal and flavoured infusions, as well as the alcoholic options. In Mexico you can add to this a long list of other non-alcoholic drinks including atole, champurrado, aguas frescas and tejate to name but a few. But in Mexico tea imports for consumption have quadrupled in ten years (rising nearly 10% in 2018) – average consumption has gone up from one cup per head per year to four cups, still a long way behind the 365 cups per head average for the world as mentioned above.
In the tea trade we are all fighting to get higher prices so that everyone working across the trade, especially those working at the production end, will be better remunerated. The increase in production in Africa inevitably resulted in lower prices at Mombasa and Limbe auctions. Prices fell in 2018 with many producers receiving 0.50 US$ to 1 US$ less per kg than they earned in 2017. Falls between 20 – 50%, depending on quality and origin were widespread. In Malawi discussions are ongoing between buyers and producers over the Malawi 2020 programme to develop a formula that will result in better prices and with 2018 seeing lower prices across Africa there is perhaps greater urgency to find a solution.
In India where crop levels remained close to 2017 levels, prices generally held. In Colombo on the other hand where crop levels actually fell slightly, prices were on average consistently lower than they were in 2017.
In China, tea is embedded in your culture and as a result the speciality end is firmly established and so producers are well rewarded. In the west demand for Speciality teas from many origins is growing and for these teas people are willing to pay fair prices to the producers for their skills, the quality of tea and, increasingly, the story.
Price will inevitably be determined by supply and demand and while there are many who advocate reductions in supply in order to raise prices there are equally persuasive arguments for more emphasis to be placed on increasing demand, a debate which needs to be discussed in detail in a separate essay.
This article hopefully gives a brief overview of the World Tea Market in 2018. The views expressed are my own but close analysis of the figures collated by the ITC and published in their Annual Bulletin of Statistics, and updated regularly on their web site, gives subscribers an invaluable insight into trends and opportunities across the world – a vital tool for any serious strategist whether he/she be a producer or marketer or simply an interested consumer of our great beverage!!!
Edward Tufte (an American statistician and professor emeritus of political science, statistics, and computer science at Yale University) once said: “If the statistics are boring, then you've got the wrong numbers.” The statistics in the International Tea Committee’s “Annual Bulletin of Statistics” are never boring!!! Don’t miss out.
(来源：茗边智库，本文选自《全球茶情报告（2019.3）》）
